19/2011 ATP Rome (ITA) Clay Richard Gasquet Roger Federer 4-6 7-6 7-6
19/2005 ATP Hamburg (GER) Clay Roger Federer Richard Gasquet 6-3 7-5 7-6
15/2005 ATP Monte Carlo (MON) Clay Richard Gasquet Roger Federer 6-7 6-2 7-6

from 3 clay meetings Gasquet won 2. All three matches were over matches. Federer had problems in first match here, against a weaker player than today. Gasquet won their last clay meeting last year.

19/2011 ATP Rome (ITA) Clay Richard Gasquet Roger Federer 4-6 7-6 7-6
19/2005 ATP Hamburg (GER) Clay Roger Federer Richard Gasquet 6-3 7-5 7-6
15/2005 ATP Monte Carlo (MON) Clay Richard Gasquet Roger Federer 6-7 6-2 7-6

from 3 clay meetings Gasquet won 2. All three matches were over matches. Federer had problems in first match here, against a weaker player than today. Gasquet won their last clay meeting last year.

Nadal is leading 14:0 in the head2head. Nadal won easy some days ago on barcelona clay with 6-0 6-4. Verdasco had problems in his first two matches here. Nadal won Monte Carlo and barcelona tournament without loosing one set! He beats Davydenko easy in first match with 6:2 6:2. They meet 6 times on clay. All matches won Nadal easy ... only once in 2009 madrid it was a tight story (6:4 7:5).

17/2012 ATP Barcelona (ESP) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-0 6-4
15/2010 ATP Monte-Carlo (MON) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-0 6-1
19/2009 ATP Madrid (ESP) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-4 7-5
17/2009 ATP Rome (ITA) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-3 6-3
22/2008 ATP French Open (FRA) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-1 6-0 6-2
29/2005 ATP Stuttgart (GER) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-3 6-2

Nadal is leading 14:0 in the head2head. Nadal won easy some days ago on barcelona clay with 6-0 6-4. Verdasco had problems in his first two matches here. Nadal won Monte Carlo and barcelona tournament without loosing one set! He beats Davydenko easy in first match with 6:2 6:2. They meet 6 times on clay. All matches won Nadal easy ... only once in 2009 madrid it was a tight story (6:4 7:5).

17/2012 ATP Barcelona (ESP) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-0 6-4
15/2010 ATP Monte-Carlo (MON) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-0 6-1
19/2009 ATP Madrid (ESP) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-4 7-5
17/2009 ATP Rome (ITA) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-3 6-3
22/2008 ATP French Open (FRA) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-1 6-0 6-2
29/2005 ATP Stuttgart (GER) Clay Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-3 6-2

I don´t understand this odd. Safarova was playing well on clay in the last weeks. Sharapova has won the clay tournament in stuttgart and has now 6 clay wins in a row. Booth have already won 2 clay matches here in madrid. Booth won without loosing one set.
Two years ago, Safarova won at the same tournament 2:0 against Sharapova. The odd for Safarova was around 2,00. That was there only head2head match. Safarova is 6:2 this year on clay and Sharapova is 6:0.

When this two teams meet, then there are not many goals in the game. Booth teams are out of form and booth teams are back in the league. The guest team is on the last place and there is not much hope for a better place in the last rounds. My pick will be under two goals ... they often play 0:0 draw in the last meetings. Home team is in very bad offense form, in their last three home games they make no goal and lost two times.

... Melzer is leading 2:1 in the head2head:
15/2011 ATP Monte-Carlo ... Clay ... Melzer won 6-1 6-4
43/2010 ATP Vienna ... I_Hard ... Melzer won 6-4 6-4
19/2010 ATP Madrid ... Clay ... Almagro won 6-3 6-1
Thru the bad rainy weather in spain the clay court will be today faster and that is a point that speaks for Melzer. Also thru the bad weather today there will be not so many fans. At Monte Carlo, by their last meeting the odds on Melzer was around ~2,60 - for sure Melzer was at this time in better form, but the odds today are a too high in my mind.